At first , this paper reviews the traditional currency crisis theories and the research on the early warning system ; thereby try to search for the crisis root and some important early warning indicator , and then basing on those and the kaminsky ' s early warning system of the currency crisis , i analyze statistically the thailand monthly data from 1992 to 2000 , seek the threshold of every early warning indicator , the adjusted noise - signal ratio and the early warning synthesis indicator , forecast the possibility of thailand happening the crisis in the coming 12 month with the month data in 2001 , and finally conclude that thailand would not happen the crisis in the coming 12 month 首先本文對傳統(tǒng)貨幣危機理論和近期對貨幣危機預警的研究進行了回顧,從而試圖尋找危機的根源和一些重要的預警指標,在此基礎上,運用kaminsky的貨幣危機早期預警方法? ?信號分析法,對泰國1992 - 2000年年間的月度數據進行了統(tǒng)計分析,求出每個預警指標的閾值、調整后的噪音信號比以及危機預警的綜合指標,進而采用泰國2001年的月度數據對泰國未來12個月進行危機預測,最后得出泰國在未來12個月內不會發(fā)生危機。